Seminar by Dr. Don Thompson: "Is It Possible to Predict Markets with Common Sense?"

Özyeğin University’s Graduate School of Business and Center for Computational Finance set the “measurement of common sense” as their new research topic. To this end, the university launches a new process to develop special software to measure the common sense.

To introduce the new research field, Özyeğin University will hold an event entitled “None of Us Is As Smart As All of Us: Is it possible to predict markets by using common sense?” on 15 April 2010 Thursday. During the event, Dr. Donald N. Thompson,  Professor of Marketing and Strategy at the Schulich School of Business at York University and Adjunct Professor at Ozyegin University, will also give a speech titled "ORACLE: Predicting the Capture of Despots, Boeing Dreamliner Deliveries and Oscar Winners Using the Wisdom in Crowds." Thompson will talk about prediction markets as one of the key tools used to measure the common sense.

Abstract

Could a diverse group of people using a makeshift investment market predict President Saddam Hussein’s capture more accurately than any reporter in Baghdad, or more accurately predict the outcome of the 2008 US presidential election than any expert on CNN? Could mid-level Boeing employees predict the length of a delay in delivery of the 787 Dreamliner months before the CEO of the company is even told about it? The answers are yes, yes and yes. How? By using a prediction market.

Prediction markets are currently being applied to a fascinating range of problems: a Google search; choosing the lead for a London West End musical; anticipating terrorism and assassinations; predicting where bird flu will strike; and setting highway speed limits. And most important, to permit employees to become visionaries. The list of organisations using markets includes many of what might be considered the world’s best managed: General Electric and Google, Motorola and Microsoft, Hewlett Packard and Eli Lilly. And the Central Intelligence Agency.

This is potentially a social revolution. Prediction markets can replace surveys, or substitute for endless meetings. They cana lso change your life, change your company or organization, and change society Prediction markets may be the single most important technique that you have never heard of.

Date: 15 April 2010, Thursday
Time: 15:30
Venue: Auditorium 1

Program:
15:30-15:40 Opening speech, Prof. Erhan Erkut, Rector, Özyeğin University
15:40-16:40 Seminar by Dr. Donald N. Thompson
16:40-17:00 Q&A
17:00-17:30 Coffee, tea and snacks

Who is Dr. Donald N. Thompson?

Donald N. Thompson is Senior Scholar, Professor and holder of the Nabisco Brands Chair in the Schulich of Business at York University in Toronto.

He has taughts at Harvard University, and held visiting positions at University College London, the London School of Economics, the University of Toronto, Long Island University, Macquarie University in Sydney, Australia and Singapore, and most recently was Visiting Professor at the Faculty of Business Administration, Bilkent University in Ankara, Turkey.

He holds an M.B.A. and Ph.D. from the University of California at Berkeley, and an LL: M. From Osgoode Hall Law School in Toronto.
His major professional experience is in the areas of marketing, economic, regulation, and strategic planning.

He is the author and co-author of nine books, and 75 published articles and reports. The second most recent, recepient of the Marmaar Prize in Business Writing and titled, Marketing Management in Turkey: Cases and Challenges, was published in 2005 in English and Turkish editions. The most recent book entitled The Twelve Million Dollar Stuffed Shark: The Curious Economics of Contemporary Art and Auction Houses in 2008 was published in 10 languages and made business bestseller lists in London and New York. His most recent book, Oracle, will be published in the falloff 2010.

Professor Thompson has served as a consultant to business organizations, government agencies and international organizations in Canada, the United States, Great Britain, France, Australia, Israel, China, Thailand, Laos, Oman and Sri Lanka and Turkey. Early in his career he held positions with Coca Cola Ltd., and with Procter & Gamble.